Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
