A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
